They are forecasting Asean-5’s gross domestic product (GDP) to slow but remain relatively resilient at a rate of 4.7% in 2023, down from 5.9% in 2022, despite the US and global growth downturn. The analysts are also projecting the grouping’s GDP growth to be higher than China’s expected growth rate of 4.0% in 2023 for a second consecutive year. The Asean-5 grouping comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, and excludes Singapore.
Asean is emerging as a “defensive harbour” against the backdrop of rising US interest rates and potential US or global recession, and could “emerge as a bright patch in the darkening storm”, say Maybank analysts.
In their regional economics report dated Dec 5, analysts Chua Hak Bin, Lee Ju Ye, Brian Lee Shun Rong and Luong Thu Huong note that the probability of a US recession over the next 12 months is estimated at 40%, based on the three-month to 10-year spread.
