UMS Holdings
Price target:
UOB Kay Hian ‘buy’ $1.56
AMAT raises guidance
UOB Kay Hian analyst John Cheong has maintained his “buy” call on UMS Holdings but with a raised target price after a key customer, Applied Materials (AMAT), raised its earnings guidance by 10% for the coming quarter.
The significant increase in AMAT’s guidance came on the back of improving demand for AI-related chips and increasing orders from its customers in China, adds the analyst.
Based on Cheong’s channel checks, UMS also looks set to benefit from its new customer’s (Customer L) expansion plans. The same customer is looking for more production capacity from several local semiconductor-related manufacturers to support its expansion and, or relocation of its Malaysian operation.
“UMS estimates that this new customer should contribute at least US$30 million ($40.9 million) in FY2024, which will make up a meaningful 11% contribution to our FY2024 forecasted revenue. For the longer term, UMS targets to grow Customer L’s contribution to be around the level of its existing largest customer,” writes Cheong in his Sept 18 report.
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Another plus for UMS is the global recovery in fab equipment spending, which is set to happen in 2023.
During the quarterly World Fab forecast report by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) published on Sept 12, global fab equipment spending for front-end facilities in 2023 is expected to decline 15% y-o-y before rebounding 15% y-o-y in 2024.
“Next year’s fab equipment spending recovery will be partly driven by the end of the semiconductor inventory correction in 2023 and strengthening demand for semiconductors in the high-performance computing (HPC) and memory segments,” says Cheong.
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“The 2023 decline in equipment investment is proving shallower than expected, while the rebound in 2024 should be better than expected. The trend suggests the semiconductor industry is turning the corner of the downturn and on a path back to robust growth, fuelled by healthy chip demand,” he adds.
UMS is also set to benefit from the increased capacity within the global semicon industry. The industry is increasing its capacity by 5% in 2023 after an 8% increase in 2022. It is also expected to see capacity growth continue in 2024, the analyst points out.
Taiwan is expected to retain the global lead in fab equipment spending in 2024 with US$23 billion in investments, which is up by 4% y-o-y. Korea is projected to rank second in spending, with an estimated US$22 billion in investments in 2024, which is up by 41% y-o-y, reflecting a memory sector recovery.
“With export controls expected to limit China’s spending in leading-edge technologies and foreign investment, the region is forecast to place third in equipment spending worldwide in 2024 at US$20 billion, a decline from 2023. Despite the constraints, Chinese foundry suppliers are expected to continue investments in mature process nodes,” writes Cheong.
Finally, AI-related and automotive chips are expected to drive double-digit growth of spending in fab equipment spending in the next three years, which is another plus for UMS.
“Global 300mm fab equipment spending for front-end facilities next year is expected to begin a growth streak to hit a US$119 billion record high in 2026, following a decline in 2023, according to SEMI,” says Cheong.
“Strong demand for high-performance computing, automotive applications and improved demand for memory will fuel double-digit growth of spending in equipment investments over the three-year period. After the projected 18% drop to US$74 billion this year, global 300mm fab equipment spending is forecast to rise 12% to US$82 billion in 2024, 24% to US$101.9 billion in 2025 and 17% to US$118.8 billion in 2026,” he adds.
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To this end, Cheong has raised his FY2024/FY2025 earnings estimates by 17% and 14% respectively. This comes after his raised revenue estimates by 4% and 3% respectively to factor in the potential recovery in the semiconductor industry from AMAT’s improved guidance.
“We also raise our gross margin assumption by 1.5% to 48.5% to account for better operating leverage from improved revenue,” says the analyst.
On the back of his raised earnings estimates, Cheong’s target price is now at $1.56 from $1.24 previously.
His new target price is based on a P/E-based valuation of 13.5x FY2024’s earnings per share (EPS), up from 12.5x previously and pegged at 0.5 standard deviation (s.d.) UMS’s historical mean P/E.
“The reason for raising our PE-based valuation multiple from below mean is to reflect the improving semiconductor industry outlook and potential increase in UMS’s earnings quality from new contributions from its new customer,” he says. — Felicia Tan
HRnetGroup
Price target:
RHB Bank Singapore ‘buy’ 91 cents
Faster GDP growth to drive better earnings
RHB Bank Singapore’s Alfie Yeo has kept his “buy” call and 91 cents target price on regional recruitment firm HRnetGroup, following “generally stable” Singapore job market data for the quarter ended June.
Yeo maintains his upbeat call on the stock in anticipation of faster GDP growth, which will lead to stronger hiring. The bank is forecasting Singapore’s GDP growth to increase from 2% this year to 3% in 2024 with a boost from China’s reopening. “As such we believe HRnetGroup will benefit from a more positive labour market next year and deliver earnings growth,” writes Yeo in his Sept 19 note.
In the near term, there’s some near-term moderation in employment growth, notes Yeo, who has therefore trimmed his FY2023 and FY2025 earnings estimate for the company by 2%. Nonetheless, there’s still an increase in new hiring and thus Yeo is pencilling in a 5% CAGR earnings growth for FY2023 to FY2025.
“We still expect the hiring recovery to be driven by the acceleration of economic growth heading into 2024,” adds Yeo.
HRnetGroup now trades at a compelling valuation with a forward PE of 11x, which is 0.5 standard deviation below its historical mean, says Yeo, whose target price of 91 cents is pegged to 0.5 standard deviation above the historical mean of the forward P/E.
Besides compelling valuations, Yeo likes HRnetGroup too for its cash-generative ability, strong net cash of 24 cents per share and an attractive dividend yield of 5%. There’s also an active share buyback programme, which will help support earnings per share growth.
Last but not least, the company is a beneficiary of the economic recovery going into FY24 — especially in Singapore and China, given how it has operations in China too.
Key risks, on the other hand, include a slower-than-expected recovery in the key labour markets of Singapore, China, and Taiwan, says Yeo. — The Edge Singapore
Singapore Technologies Engineering
Price target:
OCBC Investment Research ‘buy’ $4.45
Improving aerospace outlook
In its Sept 15 note, OCBC notes that Singapore Technologies Engineering’s (ST Engineering) 21% gain year to date has outperformed the broader Straits Times Index by 16%.
This follows “healthy operating trends” reported by the defence and engineering firm for its 1HFY2023 ended June. “We are encouraged by management’s efforts to mitigate risk factors, including cost rationalisation on underperforming assets, capital recycling to manage gearing levels, also driving operational leverage and margin improvement in core businesses.”
OCBC notes that ST Engineering’s revenue for 1HFY2023 has already surpassed what it generated before the pre-pandemic and that further growth can be expected, including from its commercial aerospace segment, which, in turn, is seeing stronger demand with the resumption of China’s outbound tourism.
OCBC notes that ST Engineering’s urban solutions and satcom divisions had delivered another weak half of performance when it reported earnings for 1HFY2023.
However, the outlook is improving with management guiding for this year’s operating profit to be similar to last year’s, implying a significant turnaround in the current 2HFY2023.
According to OCBC, potential drivers for the turnaround include an improvement in supply chain disruptions by the end of the year; more deliveries for various projects in 2H23 and the restructuring of the satcom segment resulting in cost savings.
Meanwhile, the company, as a whole, continues to win new contracts. In the latest 2QFY2023, ST Engineering added $4.7 billion worth of orders, bringing the total order book to a record $27.7 billion. Of this order book figure, about $4.4 billion is expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2023.
ST Engineering is thus far keeping to its dividend policy of paying 4 cents per share every quarter, says OCBC. — The Edge Singapore
