Analysts from both OCBC Investment Research and DBS Group Holdings have kept their "buy" calls on Mapletree Industrial Trust, following 4QFY2023 numbers that met their expectations and proving that its diversified portfolio translates into income resilience.
For the quarter ended March 2023, MINT reported a distribution per unit of 3.33 cents, down slightly from both the year-earlier and quarter-earlier periods.
Gross revenue and net property income held up and were in line with expectations too.
MINT owns a portfolio worth some $9 billion. Besides industrial properties, nearly half of its assets are data centres, which makes MINT one of the largest so-called "new economy" REITs in Singapore.
"Overall, operating results continue to shine, with overall portfolio occupancy rates remaining stable at around 94.9%," write DBS analysts Derek Tan and Dale Lai in their April 28 note, where they maintain their "buy" call and $2.70 target price.
"We believe that the industrial subsectors remain a China re-opening proxy, especially if supply chain disruptions unshackle slowly over the coming quarters as the business environment gets more conducive," state Tan and Lai.
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Nonetheless, they've trimmed their earnings estimate for the current FY2024 by 2%, to take into account the larger unit base as more unitholders preferred to take scrip instead of cash.
"We believe that income visibility and strong financial metrics, which defends MINT’s DPU against interest rate risks substantially, is a valued trait not priced in fully," they add.
MINT now trades at a 1.3x P/NAV with a forward yield of 5.8%, which the DBS analysts say is attractive.
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In its May 2 note, OCBC Investment Research similarly cheers MINT's resilience even amid the uncertain macroeconomic outlook.
"MINT’s solid financial position, high-quality management team and strategy of scaling up its data centre and Hi-Tech exposure would allow it to better withstand the uncertainties ahead," states OCBC.
Potential catalysts include stronger-than-expected recovery in industrial rents, accretive acquisitions and rental reversions turning positive.
Risks, on the other hand, include an economic slowdown that may dampen demand for industrial assets, potential spikes in interest rates that would raise financing costs and last but not least, a slow ramp up in occupancy for redevelopment projects and large spaces vacated by tenants, says OCBC.
On the other hand, Maybank Securities' Krishna Guha is not so upbeat. MINT's earnings missed his expectations.
With the prospects of what he believes will be a "difficult operating environment" ahead, Guha has downgraded the stock to "hold" from "buy", along with a new target price of $2.45, from $2.60 previously.
"While MINT offers a relatively high yield among peers of 5.8%, prolonged slowdown in manufacturing and higher funding cost is likely to further weigh on distributions," writes Guha in his May 3 note.
