“Our TP is based on a 7x 12-month forward EV/Sales, at about 25% premium to the peer average of 5.6 times for its superior growth,” wrote Mittal in his Feb 27 note. “We believe AvePoint should be largely immune to AI-related disruption given its local compliance expertise and its own AI-readiness.”
AvePoint is the largest third-party data management provider for Microsoft 365, supporting platforms such as Teams and SharePoint. It provides backup, recovery, compliance and access-control tools designed to help enterprises manage data sprawl and meet regulatory requirements.
The company reported 4QFY2025 revenue of US$114.7 million ($145.3 million), up 29% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 5% quarter-on-quarter, about 4% above consensus estimates. SaaS revenue rose 37% y-o-y to US$88.9 million, lifting the SaaS mix to a record 78%. Non-GAAP operating income climbed 58% y-o-y to US$22.9 million, also ahead of expectations, with an operating margin at 20%.
Net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached a record US$26.8 million in the quarter, bringing total ARR to US$416.8 million, up 27% from a year earlier. The company added 64 customers with more than US$100,000 in ARR during the quarter, signalling continued traction among larger enterprises.
Management guided 1QFY2026 revenue of US$115 million to US$117 million, about 4% above market expectations at the midpoint. For the full year, it expects revenue of US$509.4 million to US$517.4 million, implying 22% growth at the midpoint and modestly ahead of consensus. However, full-year non-GAAP operating income guidance came in slightly below expectations as the company steps up spending on customer acquisition, marketing and AI governance capabilities.
Mittal notes that 2026 will be an investment year, with management prioritising expansion in data intelligence and AI oversight tools. The company reiterated its long-term non-GAAP operating margin target of 25% to 30% and its ambition to reach US$1 billion in ARR by 2029.
According to IDC, AvePoint’s total addressable market stood at US$81.3 billion in FY2024 and is projected to grow at a 14% compound annual rate to US$136.5 billion by FY2028. Management estimates AvePoint’s ARR could grow at a 24% CAGR from US$417 million in FY2025 to approach management’s US$1 billion target by FY2029, outpacing underlying market expansion.
Growth has been led by its Resilience suite, which accounts for 62% of ARR and focuses on backup and compliance, followed by the Control suite at 26% and the Modernisation suite at 12%. Revenue diversification is also evident geographically: 39% comes from North America, 32% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 29% from Asia Pacific, which recorded the fastest growth at a 30% CAGR over FY2023 to FY2025.
Key risks include macroeconomic weakness in the Americas and Europe, which together account for about 70% of revenue and could slow cloud adoption. Competition in data security and governance remains intense, potentially pressuring pricing and margins, while the company's heavy reliance on Microsoft exposes it to shifts in cloud strategy or partnership dynamics.
As at 11.48am, shares in AvePoint are trading 33 cents lower, or 2.39% down, at $13.47.
