DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has downgraded both Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) O39 and United Overseas Bank (UOB) U11 to “hold” as she sees limited catalysts for both banks for now.
Lim has also lowered her target price estimates. OCBC’s target price is now at $13 from $14 previously while UOB’s target price is at $30.30, down from $34.20 previously.
Higher downside risks for Singapore banking sector overall
In an overall report on the Singapore banking sector dated April 20, Lim notes several higher downside risks ahead such as limited upside for net interest margins (NIMs).
“As [the] US Federal Reserve (US Fed) comes close to a peak in this interest rate cycle, we believe there are limited upside for NIMs going forward for Singapore banks, especially as pressures from funding costs continue,” she writes.
Economists from DBS Group Research expect the US Fed to hike rates once more during the 2Q2023 to 5.25%, which is the terminal rate for the current rate hike cycle.
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The analyst also sees increasing downside risks from potential rate cuts in FY2023 should a recession force the Fed to cut rates.
“Singapore Banks have seen strong q-o-q NIM expansion since 1QFY2022, with 4QFY2022 NIMs hitting a decade high as interest rates soared. However, stronger deposit pressures seen during 1QFY2023 will likely lead to an even more muted q-o-q NIM expansion ahead, and possibly deterioration across the banks,” she says.
Amid a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, the analyst sees loan growth and recovery in non-interest income may be “weaker than hoped for”.
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“Industry loan growth continues to be weak as system loans contracted by -1.1% year-to-date (ytd) as of end-February,” she writes.
“We expect Singapore banks to see muted loan growth of 0% to 1% q-o-q during 1QFY2023. While the banks have largely seen an improvement in wealth management activities during January and February 2023, March 2023 saw volatile and risk-off markets as Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse troubles hit the markets,” she adds.
In addition, Lim believes that market activities are unlikely to rebound back to its FY2021 levels in the near future, in part due to the increasing global economic uncertainties.
Furthermore, asset quality risks continue to be on the rise through FY2023 as recession risks become more imminent and geopolitical tensions continue to increase alongside an inflationary environment.
As it is, Singapore’s economy has already begun to see a sharper-than-expected slowdown during the 1Q2023 alongside US banks, which are increasingly starting to price a recession in the 2H2023 in their outlook.
“We believe there is further downside from higher specific provisions as the economy starts to slow, though banks may reverse some general provisions to buffer credit costs,” says Lim.
That said, all three banks began the current cycle with strong provisions buffers and now have non-performing asset (NPA) coverage ratios of 98% to 122%. “[This is] a key support to valuations in our view which limits downside.”
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“As Fed comes close to a peak in this cycle with potential rate cuts looming in 2HFY2024, with limited NIM upside, a more muted loan growth and non-interest income on the cards, amidst increasing asset quality risks, we cut FY2023-FY2024 earnings by 3%-4% for the banks,” says Lim.
“We believe Singapore banks’ strong provisions buffer, strong dividend yield of [over] 5% and excess capital (room for dividend upside) will limit downside in the near term, lest a global recession or banking crisis happen,” she adds.
‘Hold’ for OCBC and UOB
In a separate report for OCBC also dated April 20, the analyst feels OCBC’s earnings may have peaked after the bank benefitted “significantly” from the enhancement of its franchise value after it acquired Wing Hang Bank in 2014.
“[This is] given that Greater China continues to be management’s focus as a key market outside Singapore, contributing close to 15% of the group’s income in FY2022,” she says.
“The bank aims to capture rising Asian wealth and support increasing Mainland China-Hong Kong and Asean-Greater China flows to deepen its regional presence and drive sustainable growth,” she adds.
As the Fed rate comes close to its peak in this cycle, Lim sees limited upside for OCBC’s NIMs especially as pressure from funding costs continues to grow.
“While OCBC’s 4QFY2022 NIM improved 25 basis points (bps) q-o-q to 2.31%, management has guided for FY2023 NIM of [around] 2.0% - 2.1%.
“OCBC is likely to see muted loan growth in 1QFY2023, having seen a 3% q-o-q decline during 4QFY2022. With wealth management and card fees seeing a rebound in January and February 2023, this is likely to be partially offset by Great Eastern Holdings’ (GEH) performance,” says Lim.
“Recall that 4QFY2022 saw unrealised losses at GEH due to the yield curve inversion, which was still the case as of end-March. While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.
Lim has lowered her earnings estimates for OCBC by 3% to 4% for FY2023 to FY2024, which she recognises as being lower than the consensus. The lowered earnings come after she cuts her NIM estimates for FY2023 and FY2024.
“Our target price represents [around 1x FY2024, below -0.5 standard deviation (s.d.) of OCBC’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple, which we believe is a fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for OCBC’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks,” she says.
“We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114% and potential excess capital of [over] $5 billion during FY2023. We believe the downside to OCBC’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 114%,” she adds.
Lim also sees limited upside for UOB’s NIMs as the Fed rate cycle nears its peak with pressure from funding costs.
UOB’s offering of higher fixed deposit interest rates on top of higher interest rates for its flagship current account savings accounts (CASA) compared to its peers in 2HFY2022 will weigh on its upcoming NIMs during the 1QFY2023, notes Lim.
“[This is] as an increase in the cost of deposits offsets an increase in asset yields. While we anticipate a stronger q-o-q improvement in fee income from wealth and card fees and stronger treasury and investment income q-o-q, we believe there are still downside risks to management’s guidance for double-digit fee income growth through FY2023 in a more uncertain macroeconomic environment,” she writes.
“While asset quality remains benign in 1QFY2023, we believe management will top up general provisions as it guides for a more normalized credit costs of 20 bps - 25bps in FY2023 in a more uncertain environment,” she adds.
That said, UOB’s acquisition of Citi’s consumer businesses in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam will allow the bank to accelerate, scale up, and deepen its Asean franchise.
Her new target price for UOB represents around 1x FY2024, near -0.5 s.d. of UOB’s 12-year forward P/BV multiple.
In her report, Lim believes this is a “fair valuation, as we see limited catalysts ahead for UOB’s share price, given more downside risks arising from NIM, loan growth, a more uncertain macroeconomic environment for non-interest income growth, as well as rising asset quality risks.”
“We believe the downside to UOB’s share price will be supported by its strong provisions buffer of 98%,” she says.
UOB and OCBC will be releasing their 1QFY2023 results on April 27 and May 10 respectively. DBS will release its results on May 2.
As at 4.31pm, shares in OCBC and UOB are trading at $12.82 and $29.64 respectively.
