“A significant escalation of the trade war under Trump 2.0 could lead to a sharp global economic slowdown and a considerable deceleration in Singapore’s economic growth, approaching the lower end of Ministry of Trade and Industry’s 1%-3% growth forecast, implying muted q-o-q seasonally adjusted average rate over several quarters,” they note.
A tense global trade setting, uncertain US inflation outlook and a US Federal Reserve conflicted by president-elect Donald Trump’s policies “sets the tone” for a volatile 2025, DBS Group Research analysts Yeo Kee Yan and Foo Fang Boon note in a Dec 4 report.
They point out that Trump’s nomination of China hawks Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz as secretary of state and national security adviser respectively signals rocky US-China relations ahead. As a small-open economy with a small domestic market, a US-China trade war will impact Singapore’s GDP growth, Yeo and Foo add.
