Ahead of the three Singapore banks’ 3QFY2022 ended September results, UOB Kay Hian Research analyst Jonathan Koh is maintaining “overweight” on Singapore’s three banks, citing net interest margin (NIM) expansion from US Fed rate hikes.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) will be releasing their results on Oct 28. DBS Group Holdings will follow on Nov 3 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) will report their results on Nov 4.
In his report dated Oct 25, Koh maintains “buy” on both DBS and OCBC with target prices of $45.75 and $16.82 respectively.
“The Fed has maintained its disciplined and hawkish stance, hiking the Fed Funds Rate by a third consecutive 75 basis points (bps) to 3.00% after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept 21. Based on the Fed’s dot plot, the median projected path for Fed Funds Rate would hit 4.4% by end-2022 and 4.6% by end-2023. The projection is expected to lead to continued steep rate hikes of 75 bps on Nov 2 and 50 bps on Dec 14, bringing the Fed Funds Rate to 4.25% by end-2022,” writes Koh.
The rate hikes are front-loaded in 2022 and the intensity of rate hikes is expected to be modest in 2023, he adds. “The Fed is concerned that inflation remains elevated, driven by imbalances between demand and supply. It prioritises quelling inflation and has promised to ‘keep at it until the job is done’. Based on economic projections submitted by FOMC participants, US GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.2% and the unemployment rate should rise to 4.4% in 2023.”
Koh forecasts DBS net profit to grow 18% y-o-y and 11% q-o-q to $2,012 million in 3QFY2022. The strong growth is powered by accelerated NIM expansion, he adds.
See also: Test debug host entity
“We expect healthy loan growth of 5.8% y-o-y and 1.0% q-o-q, driven primarily by corporate loans in 3QFY2022. NIM expanded by a massive 29 bps q-o-q to 1.87%,” writes Koh,
The US Fed hiked Fed Funds Rate by 50 bps on May 4 and 75 bps on June 15. There was strong pass-through to domestic interest rates with three-month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) and three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rates (SIBOR) rising 121 bps and 126 bps q-o-q respectively to 1.97% and 3.17% in 3QFY2022.
Fees from transaction services are expected to be stable, Koh adds. Contribution from cards increased 12% y-o-y due to resumption of business and leisure travel, while non-interest income came in lower y-o-y due to a high base. “We expect other non-interest income to decline 19% y-o-y in 3QFY2022. Both net trading income and gains from investment securities are expected to be lower compared to last year.”
See also: Maybank downgrades ComfortDelGro in contrarian call over Addison Lee acquisition worries
Koh expects DBS’s operating expenses to increase 4.2% y-o-y and cost-to-income ratio at 41.3%.
DBS’s asset quality remains benign, says Koh. “We expect [DBS’s] non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to be stable at 1.3%. DBS has ample management overlay for general provisions of $1.8 billion set aside previously due to the Covid-19 pandemic. We expect DBS to top up general provisions in 3QFY2022 due to deterioration in macroeconomic variables and the uncertain economic outlook. We expect a credit cost of 16 bps in 3QFY2022, higher than 5 bps in 1HFY2022.”
Koh expects DBS to maintain a quarterly dividend at 36 cents for 3QFY2022.
Meanwhile, KOH forecasts OCBC to post net profit of $1,417 million for 3QFY2022, representing growth of 16% y-o-y but a decline of 4% q-o-q.
OCBC is on track to achieve mid-single digit loan growth, says Koh. “We expect loan growth of 5.4% y-o-y and 0.8% q-o-q in 3QFY2022, driven mainly by network customers expanding overseas to acquire logistics, data centre and student accommodation properties and sustainable finance.”
Koh expects NIM to expand by 20 bps q-o-q to 1.91%. “Net interest income grew by a massive 31% y-o-y.”
That said. OCBC’s fees are affected by weakness in financial turmoil and economic slowdown, writes Koh. “We expect fee income to drop 13% y-o-y in 3QFY2022. Contribution from wealth management is expected to decline 23% y-o-y as investors’ risk appetite was affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. Loans and trade-related fees are expected to drop 11% y-o-y.”
For more stories about where money flows, click here for Capital Section
Koh expects contributions from OCBC’s insurance business to be stable at $300 million. Bond markets were in the doldrums with 10-year government bond yield rising 50 bps to 3.48% in Singapore and 11 bps to 4.41% in Malaysia. “We also expect net trading income to be healthy at $180 million.”
Overall, OCBC’s asset quality remains stable, says Koh. “We expect NPL ratio to be stable at 1.3%. OCBC has set aside management overlay of more than $400 million, which is above the amount of general provisions required by its macro-economic variable model. We have factored in higher credit costs of 20 bps in 3QFY2022, compared to 7 bps in 1HFY2022, in line with management’s guidance of credit costs at 20-25 bps for 2022.”
As at 3.43pm, shares in DBS are trading 18 cents higher, or 0.55% up, at $32.81; while shares in OCBC are trading 9 cents higher, or 0.77% up, at $11.83.
