Maybank Securities analyst Yin Shao Yang has kept his “hold” call on Genting Singapore with an unchanged target price of 86 cents.
Yin says that under a “blue sky” scenario where Resorts World Sentosa’s (RWS) FY2024 ending December mass market gross gaming revenue (GGR) recovers to 100% of FY2019 — driven by the return of Chinese tourists — its FY2024 earnings estimate could be lifted by 12% to $713.3 million while its target price could be lifted by 6% to 91 cents.
Before 2016, Chinese VIPs used to account for about 50% of RWS’s VIP volume. This has eased 30%-40% as China imposed stricter capital controls in 2016, making it a lot more difficult for Chinese VIPs to remit money out of China to gamble overseas.
“For the VIP market, we think it best not to assume that many Chinese VIPs will return to gamble in Singapore. China outlawed cross-border gambling punishable by up to 10 years’ imprisonment from March 2021,” says Yin.
For the mass market segment, Maybank finds that 2Q2022 industry mass market GGR recovered to about 90% of 2Q2019 levels, even without Chinese visitors.
“We understand that this is because most Singaporean gamblers chose to gamble at home rather than cross the border to gamble in Malaysia,” Yin adds.
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As at 10.35am, shares in Genting Singapore are trading at an unchanged 81 cents.
