While global growth is likely to shoot up sharply from a low base, Lee and Tan caution against overoptimism about a potential “V-shaped” recovery. “In our base case, the reality of a drawn-out recovery process will be in tension with the optimism in markets today, and already we are beginning to see signs of growth momentum plateauing,” the pair argue in a broker’s report released on August 3.
The global economy will not see full recovery until 2022, says Bank of Singapore (BOS) analysts Eli Lee and Conrad Tan, with the bank’s economics team predicting a base case of an incomplete 4.4% growth rebound in 2021.
Investors, meanwhile, should fasten their seatbelts as markets reach a crossroads in 2H2020, with a pivotal US Presidential Election in November and growing US-China tensions in the backdrop of greater guidance over Covid-19 recovery.
