“Our macro team expects the tariff war to have a deflationary impact in Singapore. The team forecasts 2025 GDP growth of 2.1% and 1.8% in 2026 for Singapore, penciling in a growth slowdown, but not a recession at this stage,” says Guha in his April 16 report.
Maybank Securities analyst Krishna Guha has lowered his earnings estimates by mid- to high-single digits for Singapore REITs (S-REITs) for the time being.
While the analyst remains “positive” on the sector, he sees “two-way risks” taking place. On one hand, the low but non-recessionary growth, falling Singapore dollar (SGD) base rate, safe haven flows and potential fiscal stimulus should cushion the sector amid the global volatility. On the other, the analyst is looking towards the global financial crisis (GFC) cycle to look at the worst-case downside to distributions.
