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OCBC expects volatile second half for bond markets after decent June

Ng Qi Siang
Ng Qi Siang • 4 min read
OCBC expects volatile second half for bond markets after decent June
2H2020 will be a volatile one with a rollercoaster of risk and opportunity.
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SINGAPORE (July 7): June was a decent month for bond markets in Singapore, but OCBC Research analysts Andrew Wong, Ezien Hoo, Wong Hongwei and Seow Zhiqi expect the second half of the year to present greater volatility. A surge in Covid-19 cases has seen increasing dispersion in credit markets as investor sentiments were dragged along by the pandemic rollercoaster.

Early June saw 10-Year US Treasury yields rise sharply from 0.65% to 0.89% on the back of growing optimism as countries began re-opening their economies. Yet such exuberance proved short-lived as infection rates crept up in China, US and Australia. By the month’s end, yields had fallen back to 0.66% as fears of a second wave of infections crossed the minds of investors.

Still, investors have continued to trade in investment grade and high yield bonds. US investment grade issuance volumes in 2020 now exceed 2019 full year volumes. Both the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Corporate Index OAS and Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index OAS are tighter m-o-m by 24 base points and 12 base points respectively.

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