The rest of 2024 will be susceptible to speculative activities, RHB says. “We believe prices are unlikely to decline to below RM4,000 per tonne in the near future as geopolitical risks remain very much in play, which would also keep crude oil prices elevated and speculative forces active. In addition, once Trump’s 2.0 policies are made known, prices may settle down and come off their highs,” they add.
RHB Bank Singapore analysts have raised their crude palm (CPO) oil assumptions for 2025 to RM4,300 ($1,297) per tonne from RM3,800 previously, following rising prices over the past month.
According to the analysts, the run-up is due to four catalysts — the spike in crude oil prices due to heightened geopolitical tensions; weather issues in South America causing slower-than-expected soybean planting progress; Thai government’s ban on palm oil exports until year-end; and Donald Trump’s win which had caused soybean and palm prices prices to rally post-2016 elections.
