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The consensus on China’s economy is strong — and wrong

Arvind Subramanian
Arvind Subramanian • 5 min read
The consensus on China’s economy is strong — and wrong
China’s development model may distort global trade, but its critics are on weaker ground when they claim it has failed Chinese consumers. Photo: Bloomberg
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Is China’s development model short-changing domestic consumers? Although there is almost universal agreement that it is, that does not make it true.

Among the various forms that this argument takes, the simplest is based on the mercantilist–free trade dichotomy: China’s model is mercantilist and therefore preferential toward production and investment over consumption and welfare. For example, in Trade Wars Are Class Wars, Matthew C Klein and Michael Pettis contend that there is a serious distributional conflict within China (“class wars”), with policymakers favouring elites and cronies in big business, and thus prioritising profits over wage income.

Alternatively, some argue that repressive labour policies are critical for the success of the Chinese and East Asian model more generally.

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