“Policymakers remained reticent about the rate cut outlook in 2025, noting that the Federal Reserve is “significantly closer to neutral” and rate considerations from here onward would “need further progress toward 2% inflation”. Against this backdrop, the risk for 2025 is between the Fed cutting modestly and not cutting at all,” says DBS Group Research in a Jan 20 report.
The outlook for interest rates in the region, and in particular Singapore, hinges on the outlook for inflation in the US.
On the face of it, as Trump starts his second term, the US has strengthened economically against its adversaries and partners. It’s unclear if China is an adversary or partner, perhaps a bit of both. Trump’s economic policies are unknown, perhaps even to him. Parsing some of the garbled promises on the campaign trail makes for a murky outlook for the interest rate cycle. The uncertainty can create trading opportunities for the fleet of foot. From the vantage point of January, the outlook is good for banks and neutral to negative for S-REITs.
