But the Trump bump hides a fact that should worry investors in emerging-markets stocks, who’ve seen their wealth increase by US$4.3 trillion so far this year: companies in developing nations are hurting. They’ve failed to meet expectations for profits in 2025, and, on average, are trailing projections for a 13th successive quarter. Earnings projections have also begun to fall, indicating the pain is set to deepen.
The start of Donald Trump’s second presidency has matched his first term in proving a boon for emerging-market stocks, but the rally risks running out of steam given his trade and fiscal policies are also sinking corporate earnings.
The benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index has posted an advance every month from January through August this year, the first of Trump’s second term. That’s happened only twice before in the 37 years that investors have tracked emerging markets as an asset class: in 2017, also a Trump inaugural year, and in 1993, under Bill Clinton.
