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India on the cusp of significant new capex cycle

Tantallon Capital
Tantallon Capital • 7 min read
India on the cusp of significant new capex cycle
The Bharat Dynamics exhibition booth at the DefExpo 2022 in Gandhinagar, India. Photo: Bloomberg
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The Tantallon India Fund closed 0.77% lower in November. This was a disappointing outcome in a strong market as our portfolio was far too conservatively positioned for a strong recovery in global risk appetite and an abrupt resumption of overseas fund flows into index heavyweights.

Our conviction on India still stands:

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government continues to implement structural reforms without compromising the country’s fiscal position.
  • Infrastructure investments, industrialisation, China+1, urbanisation, financials and domestic consumption remain long-term investment thematics.
  • Pools of domestic savings continue to underpin market valuations.
  • As the US dollar starts to look “top-pish”, Asia and India in particular, will likely benefit disproportionately from asset allocation flows, thanks to the visibility on growth and corporate earnings. It is noted that after having net sold US$29 billion ($39.2 billion) in the first half of 2022, foreign institutional investors have turned net buyers to the tune of US$10 billion over the last three months.

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