(June 15): So the emerging-market rally wasn’t so unstoppable after all.
Though nobody was betting that June wouldn’t produce its own trials and turns at some point, the manner of last week’s retreat in risk assets has left investors trying to decipher whether it’s a sign of things to come or just an opportunity to reflect on the strides taken so far.
The MSCI Inc.’s emerging-markets stocks index dropped 1.8% on Monday, extending last week’s decline of 1.6%, while a similar gauge of currencies slipped 0.3%. The equity index now looks to have failed in its attempt to hold meaningfully above the 200-day average, after rising above it last week for the first time in three months.
“We would liken the nascent market rally to a baby just learning to walk, confident in his or her abilities, but cognizant of the potential dangers lurking around every corner,” said Todd Schubert, Singapore-based head of fixed-income research at Bank of Singapore Ltd.
The dangers remain manifold, from the possibility that a second wave of coronavirus infections could derail the global recovery to an escalation of U.S.-China tensions in the run-up to America’s November presidential election. A warning by the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un over the weekend that the next action will come from the army will likely add to investors’ caution.
Underscoring those anxieties, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s measure of implied volatility for emerging-market currencies rose last week for the first time in more than a month.
Investors will turn to central-bank decisions this week for clues on the next phase, with the average yield on developing-nation currency bonds still close to an all-time low. Policy makers in Indonesia, Russia and Brazil are predicted to cut interest rates to bolster their economies, eroding real yields.
Economic data will also serve as a guide on the progress of the global recovery. China’s industrial production and retail sales numbers released Monday both missed forecasts, while Indonesia said exports tumbled more in May than the median estimate by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
More Easing
- Bank Indonesia will cut its policy rate for the third time this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The authority has held its seven-day reverse repurchase rate at 4.5% in the last two meetings
- Still, there’s a chance BI will stay on hold after risk aversion returned to global markets last week amid the resurgence of coronavirus cases in the U.S., prompting Bank Indonesia to intervene in the spot foreign-exchange market
- The rupiah has rallied from a 22-year low in March
- “Even as the recent uptick in fund flows and the gain in rupiah have been heartening, the reality is that the need to anchor such gains remain crucial,” wrote Wellian Wiranto, an economist in Singapore at OCBC, which expects BI to keep its policy unchanged
- The Bank of Russia saw scope for another 100 basis points of easing after April’s half-point reduction. Yet economists surveyed by Bloomberg are split as to whether the central bank will go all the way in June or save some ammunition for July. The median forecast is for a reduction of 75 basis points
- The real has been the top performer in emerging markets in the past month. Overseas investors have been trimming short positions in the currency and selling dollars in the local derivatives market since May 14, when the central bank increased its intervention after the real slid to a record
- The peso has been the best performing Latin American currency after Brazil’s this month
Argentina, Honduras
- Argentina moved a deadline for creditors to accept a $65 billion debt restructuring proposal to Friday, June 19 -- the fourth extension as the groups edge toward a deal. Economy Minister Martin Guzman said the nation will improve its offer one last time during an interview with Brazilian newspaper Valor Economico. Argentina will also release budget balance figures for May, which could provide clues on the cost of lockdowns to contain the virus
- Honduras may sell a benchmark-sized dollar bond after holding investor calls last week
Economic Data
- India will report May trade figures on Monday. Its deficit is expected to have contracted further amid subdued oil prices. The rupee is the biggest loser in the past three months among emerging Asian currencies
- The Philippines is due to release last month’s balance of payments on Friday. This will give further evidence whether the peso’s rally in recent months is justified. The BOP surplus widened to more-than-a-year high in April
- Taiwan will report its export orders in May on Saturday, an advanced indicator of global demand for its shipments especially in electronics. Orders have been recovering since March
- Turkey publishes central government budget data for May on Monday. In April, the government ran one of its widest deficits on record as the coronavirus outbreak paralyzed economic activity, while spending jumped and tax deferrals chipped away at government revenue
- Rattled by measures that made it more difficult for international investors to bet against the lira, foreign funds have more than halved their holdings of Turkish government bonds this year
