“Thus far, RHB notes that spot CPO prices have moderated from RM4,600–RM4,800 [$1,386–$1,446] per tonne in 1Q2025 to a low of RM3,780 in May, only to bounce back to RM3,900–RM4,100 currently. The decline was mainly driven by geopolitical factors, including US trade tariffs, wars and a decline in crude oil prices, all of which pushed CPO prices in the same direction.
RHB Bank Singapore is expecting 2026 to be a more balanced year, fundamentally for the palm oil industry as a whole. The Singapore research team, however, notes that while crude palm oil (CPO) prices are lower y-o-y, geopolitical risks have also translated to more volatility.
“We lower our CPO, but raise our palm kernel (PK) price assumptions for FY2025–FY2027,” says the RHB research team.
