Regardless of who wins the US presidential elections, one thing is for certain — the broader stock market is expected to see a short-term boost. This is due to the “Presidential Cycle” theory, which postulates that there is a predictable pattern of stock market returns after the election of a new US president. The cycle has been studied and referenced by economists and market strategists, where they look at the first year of US presidents in office in an economic and investment context.
Americans will head to the ballots today to vote for the 47th President of the United States, and most polls are predicting a close race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.
As it stands, markets are currently pricing in a Trump victory, which is expected to bring with it higher tariffs, lower corporate taxes and higher spending growth, among others. Sectors such as traditional energy, defence and technology are expected to be key beneficiaries should Trump triumph. Yet, should Harris prevail, sectors such as clean energy, healthcare and infrastructure, could be expected to benefit instead.
