To the relief of investors, the inflation and related numbers are trending down. For example, US markets rallied recently on news that wage growth has slowed. “Goods, rents, money supply are all starting to drop,” says Chew, adding that while markets are already at a matured stage of the cycle and growth, if any, will slow, 2023 will still be a much better year for the various asset classes.
Inflation — more specifically, the fight with inflation — has hogged headlines for the better part of last year. From the perspective of the research team at Phillip Securities, this economic phenomenon will continue to be in the limelight as investors nurse their wounds from a best-forgotten 2022, where most asset classes were hurt. “Inflation will be the most important determinant of the direction of all asset classes,” says head of research Paul Chew at a recent webinar, with the theme “positioning for a disinflation.”
Due to surging energy and food prices on one hand and capped supply amid recovering demand from the pandemic, inflation shot up to multi-decade highs last year and remained there stubbornly, goading central banks to jack up interest rates in response, hurting investment gains in the process.
