In tandem with the focus on inflation, Ganeriwal is watching the labour market closely. He points to a clear downshift across multiple gauges, from multi-month payroll averages to participation and continuing claims. “We are seeing clear signs of labour market weakness,” he says, noting that the three-month average job creation has slipped to roughly 35,000 from an April–June trend of about 150,000, while continuing claims have risen and the labour-force participation rate has fallen to 62%. He adds that softer retail sales, higher credit card delinquencies and tighter bank lending standards in the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey are the kind of early-warning indicators that usually weigh on growth and shape the Fed’s path.
A softer-than-expected US inflation print and cooler labour data have confirmed expectations of the recent Fed rate cut on Sept 17. Headline inflation slowed to 2.7%, under forecasts, as risk assets rallied, short-end Treasury yields fell and the dollar slipped. Futures-implied probabilities now point to a cut as near-certain, with the CME FedWatch Tool placing the odds at 94%.
Against this backdrop, Ritesh Ganeriwal, managing director and head of investment & advisory at Syfe, frames the pivot as significant for rate-sensitive assets but argues the story does not end with the Fed. “Rate-sensitive sectors — bonds, REITs and certain equity segments — are primed to benefit as monetary policy turns supportive,” he says, adding that the dollar’s decline is a major swing factor this year, with non-US equities outperforming materially in 1H2025. “It’s a signal to reposition for a very different cycle ahead — a cycle where the US is no longer the only game in town.”
