“The economy that clearly stands out is the US. We expect it to continue growing above trend, with GDP growth of 2.2% this year. That compares with 0.4% for the Euro area, 1% for the UK and 0.6% for Japan, which means the US is growing more than twice as fast as other major developed markets,” says Subbaraman.
Asia is undergoing a structural transformation driven by China’s rise and the AI revolution. Together, these trends are reshaping supply chains, deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, fuelling economic nationalism and increasing volatility. Speakers at the 23rd Nomura Investment Forum said China, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia stand to benefit the most.
Rob Subbaraman, Nomura’s head of global macro research, says one of the firm’s key views is that global economies are increasingly diverging. Unlike the post-pandemic inflation shock, when economies were broadly recovering together on the back of pent-up demand, economic performance is now diverging.
