Rasid highlighted that tariffs and fiscal policy are closely linked. “Trump really needs that revenue coming from the tariff situation to fund his One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” she says. Tariff revenues are projected to surge from US$80 billion ($102.6 billion) in 2024 to about US$600 billion, marking a structural shift from the pre-trade war baseline of roughly 3% to a new range of 15%–20%.
Global markets have entered the third quarter of 2025 with a combination of stabilisation and persistent uncertainty. While the most intense phase of tariff tensions appears to have passed, key trade negotiations, shifting growth drivers and sector-specific pressures are shaping a more selective investment landscape.
Raisah Rasid, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM), calls the current tariff environment as “the biggest elephant in the room”, noting that the effective tariff rate on US goods imports is now around 15.6%. “The peak uncertainty is over, but there’s still a lot to be hammered out in terms of the inner workings of what the trade deals actually mean for markets,” she says in the third-quarter outlook briefing. Recent agreements with Japan and the EU have offered some clarity, but negotiations with China are still in progress, and sectoral tariffs on commodities such as aluminium remain unresolved.
