A key uncertainty, Brill emphasises, is the weakness and volatility of the US dollar. The currency, traditionally viewed as a global safe haven during financial turmoil, has recently struggled to maintain this status. “The dollar was always in high demand if there was stress in financial markets,” he notes, adding that this was seen during the Global Financial Crisis and Covid-19 pandemic.
In VP Bank’s market outlook for the second half of 2025, Felix Brill, chief investment officer, highlights a cautiously constructive perspective amid ongoing global uncertainty. Despite persistent volatility and geopolitical disruptions, markets have remained surprisingly resilient, demonstrating adaptability amid shifting economic conditions.
In a briefing, Brill acknowledges this resilience, particularly considering how well global markets bounced back following early disruptions this year. “We’ve seen a really nice rebound since mid-April after Liberation Day,” says Brill, describing how markets quickly shook off earlier trade tensions and currency volatility. He remains cautious about complacency among investors, noting the persistent yet often ignored uncertainties that linger beneath the surface. “The question is, heading into the second half of this year, will markets continue to be so resilient, maybe even a bit complacent, with regard to all those uncertainties?” he questions.
