“An actual home price decline is yet to be priced in for developer stocks,” Ng and Chang wrote. “The end is near for what has been an historic seven-year rally in private home prices.” They downgraded both of the island-nation’s key property developer stocks City Developments Ltd. and UOL Group Ltd. to underweight, from overweight and equal-weight respectively.
Singapore’s seven-year rally in private home prices, the longest upcycle since the 1980s, is about to end as a demand-supply imbalance could reverse next year, according to Morgan Stanley.
Analysis of leading indicators including housing vacancies and sales show home prices will likely decline 3% in 2024, and the downturn may persist for as many as two years, analysts Wilson Ng and Derek Chang wrote in a note dated Nov. 8.
