SINGAPORE (July 10): Analysts and investors are questioning whether the rally in Singapore’s beloved real estate investment trusts has room to run.
Strategists from Morningstar to CMC Markets Singapore say REITs, which have gained more than twice as much the broader equity market this year, are starting to look overvalued and may not see such strong performance in the second half.
The FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Investment Trust Index has surged 18% in 2019, closing last week at the highest since 2007. The gauge traded at 1.2 times book value on Friday, the most expensive in more than six years.
“One will need to be selective when investing in REITs,” said Ken Foong, an analyst at Morningstar in Singapore. “Most of them have gone up to being overvalued.”
Foong has sell ratings on CapitaLand Commercial Trust, CapitaLand Mall Trust and Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust, and a hold on Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust.
“For the four REITs that we cover, the dividend yield is below their 10-year historical average,” Foong said.
The REIT index’s estimated 12-month forward dividend yield stood at 5.13% at the end of last week, down from 6.22% at the start of the year.
“The rally of Singapore REITs seems to have been overstretched for now, and profit-taking activities are kicking in,” Margaret Yang, a strategist at CMC Markets Singapore, wrote in an email. “Rich valuation and relatively less attractive yield compared to the banking sector have rendered REITs susceptible to some short-term sell-off.”
Tremendous Run
UBS Global Wealth Management lowered its weighting for Singapore REITs to neutral from overweight in April.
“REITs have had a tremendous run, so we do think that they look fairly valued,” Min Lan Tan, head of the Asia Pacific chief investment office for the wealth manager, said at a press briefing Monday. “A lot of the good news is priced in.”
UBS Global Wealth is overweight Singapore banks, some of which offer estimated forward dividend yields of close to 5%. Tan said the industry provides “better bang for your buck” for yield-hungry investors.
Some analysts remain optimistic. Singapore REITs boast the highest dividend yields across all major REIT markets, according to Jason Low, a senior investment strategist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd.’s wealth-management unit. As bond proxies, they’ll also get a boost from interest-rate cuts in the U.S., said Rainer Michael Preiss, a portfolio strategist at Taurus Family Office.
Nevertheless, Low said that while DBS is still recommending REITs to clients, it expects returns to be more modest. The REIT index fell 1.4% on Tuesday, a second day of declines.
“Investors should not expect the kind of strong returns seen in the first half,” he said.
