Technically, it is a bit too early to say that the UST10Y has peaked. The chart pattern is beginning to look like a head-and-shoulder top formation but there is no confirmation as the yield has not broken below the neckline of the formation. In order to do that, the UST10Y needs to confirm a break below 4.35% based on the current chart pattern.
The Straits Times Index continued to languish somewhat. Week-on-week, the index lost 30 points to end at 3,094. Short-term RSI, which had corrected its oversold readings since early November, retreated from its equilibrium line. Although the STI managed to move above a resistance area at 3,150 on Nov 7-8, there wasn’t sufficient momentum for a breakout and the index has since fallen back. Support stays at 3,000 initially, and then at 2,970.
The S&P 500, on the other hand, has rallied by 10% since October 27, and is up 18% this year. The yield on the 10-year US treasuries ((UST10Y) has fallen from near 5% at the beginning of Nov to a tad below 4.5% currently. As at Nov 24, the UST10Y is at 4.4724. On Nov 23, the UST10Y rebounded off its rising 100-day moving average at 4.3507 on an intra-day basis.
