Technically at any rate, Keppel Corp appears increasingly to have formed a low of sorts and is about to challenge the top of a base formation. Its price has moved above its 50-day moving average, now at $4.43, a level which coincides with minor support at $4.40. The top of the base is at $4.61. There are a few caveats to a possible breakout. Volume — currently at an ebb — needs to start rising almost immediately. Secondly, quarterly momentum, which had formed a minor positive divergence in Sept, needs also start rising almost immediately. If these materialise, prices could break above $6.60, indicating an upside of at least $5, a level Keppel hasn’t seen since early Aug.
City Developments is another matter. It is in an accelerated decline which has yet to stop. Quarterly momentum is in a downtrend, and 21-day RSI is at 28, the second-lowest level this year after the March 23 lows. Elsewhere, ADX has surged, and the DIs are negatively placed. Unfortunately, stochastics has just turned down.
While some strategists see the moves of Oct 19-23 as a capitulation or climactic selling, the charts need evidence that selling has abated. Base formations usually materialise when there is very little interest in a stock, represented by very low volume - like in Keppel Corp. With CDL, volume has yet to start contracting. It could materialise in the week of Oct 26-30. If so, then prices may move into the initial stages of a base formation.
In the meantime, the Oct 22 low of $6.83 should be monitored. A successful test of this level could cause a temporary bounce, with resistance appearing at the Oct 21 high of $7.41. This may be sufficient for traders to punt the stock but long-term investors may want to wait out the volatility.
