The Straits Times Index rebounded by 58 points week-on-week to close at 3,262, despite continued firm yields on the 10-year US treasuries which stood at 3.27% as at Sept 8. The STI’s decline in the weeks of Aug 29-Sept 9 stopped at 3,205, ahead of an upturn by the 50-day moving average, but below the confluence of the 100- and 200-day moving averages at 3,212 and 3,237. Quarterly momentum held at its equilibrium line. However, directional movement indicators are low, at 16, an indication that the index is unlikely to trend strongly.
As such, the STI may stay rangebound, between 3,200 and 3,300 for the next week or so. Since the index was able to remain above 3,200, this is likely to be the new support.
Interestingly, in the comparative strength chart between the STI and the S&P 500 (SPX), the SPX was stronger than the STI till February 2022. Since then, the SPX has struggled to maintain its strength while the STI strengthened against the US market barometer. The comparative strength chart shows continued STI strength versus the SPX which could persist for another week.
This could be due to local banks strengthening, While their chart patterns are ambiguous, indicating that DBS Group Holdings and United Overseas Bank are likely to trade within a range, the full impact of rising interest rates have not been built into their net interest income levels, and there could be a re-rating and more upside on this front.
Yields on 10-year US treasuries continued to rise during the past five trading sessions, between Sept 2 - Sept 8. They are at their highest level since mid-June when yields touched 3.48%. Based on rising moving averages, strong quarterly momentum and rising directional movement indicators, yields could gain further before they head for a retreat.
