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Analysts downgrade NODX growth forecast after October’s lower-than-expected numbers

Cherlyn Yeoh
Cherlyn Yeoh • 4 min read
Analysts downgrade NODX growth forecast after October’s lower-than-expected numbers
During the month, Singapore’s NODX fell by 4.6% y-o-y and 7.6% on a m-o-m seasonally adjusted basis. Photo: Bloomberg
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Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) for the month of October fell by 4.6% y-o-y and 7.6% on a m-o-m seasonally adjusted basis.

This was weaker than the estimates of the Bloomberg consensus, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) and United Overseas Bank (SGX:U11) (UOB), who expected Singapore’s October NODX to expand by 4%, 2.5% and 2.6% on a y-o-y basis respectively.

October’s NODX performance was the “worst” since June’s, bringing NODX for the year-to-date to a 0.1% contraction on a y-o-y basis, notes OCBC economist Selena Ling in her Nov 18 report. She adds that should Singapore’s November and December NODX grow by 6.2% y-o-y, the country’s NODX growth for the year will only grow by a “tepid” 1% on a y-o-y basis. In her Oct 17 note for September’s NODX previously, Ling believes that Singapore’s full-year NODX growth is likely to go below her forecast of 4%.

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