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Chasing the small caps now will likely end in tears

Tong Kooi Ong & Asia Analytica
Tong Kooi Ong & Asia Analytica • 7 min read
Chasing the small caps now will likely end in tears
Photo Credit: Bloomberg
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Stocks on Bursa Malaysia have seen strengthening investor interest in recent weeks. While increased trading volume and broad price gains in July may be attributed, at least in part, to foreign fund inflows on improved sentiment for global equity markets — and perhaps some speculative trading ahead of the state elections — it was not the case in August. Notably, much of the trading interest over the past month was centred on mid-cap and smaller stocks — the FBM Small Cap Index gained 3.1% m-o-m while the FBM Mid 70 Index was up 2.4% on the back of higher-than-average volumes (year to date). By comparison, the FBM KLCI — made up of the 30 largest-cap stocks — fell 0.5% last month, amid declines in the US and key regional markets. We do not see the same trading trend on the Singapore Exchange. In fact, traded volumes were actually below the yearto-date averages and all the bellwether indices for large-, mid- and small-caps, ended August in the red (see Table 1).

A deeper dive into the statistics shows that the biggest spike in trading volumes and gains on Bursa Malaysia were registered for the property and construction sectors. Table 2 shows the five most actively traded stocks in the two related sectors. Share prices for UEM Sunrise surged a massive 170% in just one month, creating positive spillover effects on the rest of the property stocks. The construction sector also saw smart gains, albeit to a lesser extent. Even so, the gains were huge, by any yardstick. The questions then are, what is driving this renewed trading interest, is the rally sustainable and will momentum broaden out to the rest of the market?

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