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The limitations of our knowledge narrow our windows of opportunity

Tong Kooi Ong & Asia Analytica
Tong Kooi Ong & Asia Analytica • 8 min read
The limitations of our knowledge narrow our windows of opportunity
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This week, we take a hard look at our portfolio performances. We started the Malaysian Portfolio in October 2014 and added the Global Portfolio in December 2017. As a reminder for readers, both are real portfolios, the former denominated in ringgit and the latter in US dollars. Enough time has passed, we think, for us to make some conclusions as to how successful (or otherwise) we have been — and what it implies for our strategy going forward. We tabulated the performances of both portfolios as well as for the relevant benchmark indices (see Table 1).

We have done remarkably well for the Malaysian Portfolio, with a total return of more than 160% since inception, or equivalent to a compound annual return exceeding 12.1%. By comparison, the Global Portfolio — while making a positive return of 28.5%, and far better than the average return on US dollar bank deposits — is lagging the 45.9% gains of the benchmark MSCI World Net Return Index. In fact, over this period, the Malaysian Portfolio handily beat the Global Portfolio — and the global benchmark index to boot — logging in a total return of 50.8% (in ringgit terms). This was despite the dismal performance of the broader Bursa Malaysia, with the FBM KLCI falling by 15%. The return of the Malaysian Portfolio was lower, however, at 39.1% in US dollar terms, owing to the depreciation of the ringgit over this period. What conclusions can we draw from these results?

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