The pair, who have “buy” ratings on UOL Group (UOL) and City Developments (CDL), expect property prices and volumes to come in 3% higher each in 2026. This represents about 10,800 units of new home sales.
The projected price growth is slim, which “leaves less room for error” in costing by property developers, add the analysts.
The growth in residential prices has been moderating. Singapore’s private property price index rose 3.4% y-o-y in 2025.
See also: OCR, landed homes lead private residential price rise in 2025: URA
Rapidly swelling prices of new Outside Central Region (OCR) projects in recent years are now seeing a slowdown.
“To be clear, new OCR projects are still selling well by most standards,” say Lee and Lim in a Feb 2 note. “Prices are hovering at the low $2,000 psf, while take-up rates are at one of the highest levels seen in history… Capacity to buy is underpinned by lower interest rates, net cash balances of households and a buoyant public housing market.”
Recent land bids continue to underwrite consistent margins, they add, with land cost at 44% to 57% of gross development value, prior to any price increases.
See also: Paying for Marina Square
Overall, Lee and Lim expect sales volumes to enter a “modest upswing” this year.
“To illustrate the potential degree of pent-up demand, one might look to volumes seen during the pandemic and even post-Global Financial Crisis highs. However, the projected growth slope for 2026 will be moderated by the number of units in the Government Land Sales programme.”
Charts: UBS
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