Chip shortage signals need for more innovative semiconductors

In 2022, the world celebrated the 75th anniversary of the transistor, and the 65th anniversary of the integrated circuit. Since then, we have evolved from a single amplifier block to a 3000-transistor wafer in the 1970s to a nanometer process that can accommodate 50 billion transistors onto a chip the size of a fingernail. In the last 35 years, the semiconductor market grew from over US$30 billion to more than US$600 billion, creating millions of employment opportunities.

Optimism is now surging through the semiconductor space. Billions are being spent by governments, chip makers, and equipment and materials suppliers. To reach the US$1 trillion industry that is being predicted by 2030, the industry must double in size. With funding well underway from the U.S. CHIPS Act, European, and Japanese legislative equivalents target open-innovation partnership approaches to R&D and capital investment to strengthen supply chains.

East Asia accounts for 75% of global semiconductor production, and more than 90% of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan and South Korea. However, the semiconductor market has proven quite volatile over the past few years due to recent supply chain challenges.

As global investment continues at a very high rate, the challenges of overcoming shortages, meeting talent needs, and developing resilient and sustainable supply chains – as well as addressing complex geopolitical issues, are likely to persist into 2024.

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What is driving growth?

Based on the growth in high-speed data requirements, we see even greater data demands for applications in the future. The Internet of Things (IoT), autonomous cars, and the rollout of 5G and coming 6G networks are already upon us with enormous high-speed data requirements.

In addition, future new applications which have not yet been invented will create a need for greater bandwidth and the implied reliance on advanced semiconductors to support these new technologies. These could involve future virtual reality worlds in the metaverse, or something not yet even imagined.

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What approach is needed to address future needs?

Innovation is key. Whether developing the next wave of cellphone infrastructure, or the next generation of self-driving cars, manufacturers will depend on next-gen design, emulation, and test solutions for their quality and performance testing -- which themselves require more capable, diverse, differentiated semiconductor technologies.

Smart, integrated technologies can support customer test and measurement needs by enabling users to test next-gen devices while their products are still under development. For example, consider a 5G subbase station cell tower with amplifiers that transmit signals out to cell phones. To accurately test amplifier noise and linearity, test and measurement systems need to be an order of magnitude better in each parameter compared to the device being measured.

Global digitalisation, just-in-time distributed processing with higher throughput and lower latency on custom chips and compute engines, and new technologies such as silicon photonics, millimeter-wave (mmWave) and high-power devices are all spurring new semiconductor manufacturing growth.

To pave the way for future technological innovations, it is equally important to create breakthroughs in test and measurement processes. Production of custom semiconductors will therefore be key to meeting future market demands for highly complex electronics products, and such innovations in chip-making will be essential to stay ahead of the rapid development of new product launches and next-gen solutions before they get rolled out in the years ahead. Build-it-yourself approach to chip-making will also ensure that testing technologies meet the highest standards for quality and performance.