Walking the energy tightrope: Can Singapore achieve both energy security and net-zero?

Wong’s announcement in March also commits Singapore to achieve net-zero emissions by or around 2050.

Of course, this was a week before war broke out in Ukraine. Now, in addition to eliminating emissions, Singapore has to keep an eye out for energy security.

Almost all of Singapore’s energy is imported, with 95% of Singapore’s electricity generated from natural gas. Thus, Singapore cannot be fully insulated from developments in the global energy market, says Second Minister for Trade and Industry (MTI) Tan See Leng in Parliament.

Some 46% of the country’s carbon emissions come from industrial activity. That said, power generation is not far behind, contributing 39% of Singapore’s emissions.

See also: Ngee Ann Polytechnic opens a new academic school that combines 3 disciplines

A vulnerable transition

Europe’s struggle to wean itself off Russian gas while scaling up its renewable energy production should serve as a lesson to Singapore. How can Singapore diversify its energy mix without a hitch?

See also: CapitaLand India Trust commissions 21MW captive solar plant in Tamil Nadu

Wood Mackenzie research director Angus Rodger urges pragmatism. “One cannot assume that all countries can naturally reach 100% renewables. If countries want to avoid unreliable power, faltering grids and potential price and supply volatility, then a supply of reliable, baseload power is required.”

At 95% of our current energy mix, natural gas is Singapore’s Plan B. But keeping gas on the backburner — preparing for the metaphoric rainy day — requires a sizeable commitment, says Rodger to The Edge Singapore. “The issue then becomes the utilisation and economics of the back-up gas generation: Will capital be available to invest in new regasification capacity, gas pipes and power stations if these facilities are only used for back-up, and are not being fully utilised on a daily basis?”

However, Singapore must not get too comfortable relying on natural gas, says Paul Carthy, Accenture’s managing director of strategy & consulting and energy lead of growth markets. “Simply maintaining the status quo will no longer be sufficient.”

Singapore must look for creative ways to reduce the country’s carbon footprint and drive energy efficiencies.

While going green is commendable, our region is geographically disadvantaged, says Rodger. “In Southeast Asia, many areas have sub-optimal solar conditions, long monsoon seasons and poor wind generation. Expecting such countries to race to full renewable power in the near or medium term is therefore overly optimistic.”

The cards are stacked against Singapore. “Many of the native renewable resources that are readily available to other countries are simply not available for us,” says Carthy. “Singapore must look for creative ways to reduce the country’s carbon footprint and drive energy efficiencies.”

Undersea solar power

Perhaps the most ambitious — and creative — of Singapore’s renewable energy plans is the Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink) project by Sun Cable.

Australian-Singaporean company Sun Cable plans to lay a 4,200km high-voltage cable to supply 15% of Singapore’s electricity needs from a giant solar and battery complex deep in Australia’s Northern Territory.

SMEC, a member of the Surbana Jurong Group, is among a team of global experts involved in AAPowerLink.

SMEC will focus on the onshore generation side of the project, says James Phillis, CEO of SMEC Australia & New Zealand. “SMEC will contribute our design leadership and deep technical expertise to the development of a 17–20 gigawatt (GW) solar farm, including all battery and substation designs.”

“Surbana Jurong will focus on the establishment and delivery of the Singapore assets including battery energy storage systems and the high-voltage, direct current (HVDC) supporting infrastructure,” adds Phillis.

In Singapore, we have not yet studied the full potential for job creation, but it could be significant, particularly given that we have Surbana Jurong as one of our project partners.

The project is “perfectly on track”, says Fraser Thompson, founder of Sun Cable. “Construction starts in 2024, with first supply to Singapore in 2027 and the full capacity in 2028.”

Thompson adds: “We have the potential to increase the supply of electricity. There is the opportunity, for example, to build a second cable to Singapore. We think this will eventually be critical, given Singapore’s electricity demand needs.”

According to Thompson, AAPowerLink could create around 7,500 total jobs in Indonesia through supplying key components of the project. “In Singapore, we have not yet studied the full potential for job creation, but it could be significant, particularly given that we have Surbana Jurong as one of our project partners.”

On March 14, Sun Cable shareholders Mike Cannon-Brookes, who is co-founder of Atlassian Corp, and iron ore magnate Andrew Forrest committed more cash to the A$30 billion ($29.8 billion) project.

With the close of its A$210 million Series B capital raising, Sun Cable now has sufficient funding to take it to the project’s financial close at end-2023.

Importing renewables

To be sure, Singapore is capturing its own share of the sun. Last July, Sembcorp Floating Solar Singapore, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Semb­corp Industries, and National Water Agency PUB opened the Sembcorp Tengeh Floating Solar Farm at the Tengeh Reservoir.

The 60 megawatt-peak (MWp) solar photovoltaic (PV) farm is one of the world’s largest inland floating solar PV systems.

While this is a “creative” way to harvest solar energy, this is not sufficient, says Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong.

In his comments at the 14th Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW) last October, Gan notes that “even if we maximise all available space in Singapore for solar deployment, and accounting for efficiency improvements, we would still not be able to generate enough power to keep the lights on with solar energy alone”.

Even though Singapore is resource-constrained, we lie in a region with abundant renewable energy resources.

Thus, Singapore plans to import up to 4GW of electricity from renewable energy sources by 2035. This will constitute around 30% of Singapore’s electricity supply.

Importing low-carbon energy will be a “key needle mover” in Singapore’s energy transition, says Gan. “Even though Singapore is resource-constrained, we lie in a region with abundant renewable energy resources … A significant portion of our electricity can be imported safely and reliably if we have adequate safeguards in place.”

Singapore will issue two requests for proposals (RFP) for such imports. The first, to import up to 1.2GW of electricity, was launched in November and closes on April 1. The second RFP will be issued in 2Q2022, says the Energy Market Authority (EMA).

Read the full cover story

See also: Surbana Jurong's master plan for climate change

See also: City Energy harbours hydrogen dreams to help homes decarbonise

For a start, Singapore is trialling three small-scale imports of up to 100 megawatts (MW) each. 100MW represents about 1.5% of Singapore’s peak electricity demand in 2020 and can power over 144,000 4-room HDB flats for a year.

The first comes from Peninsular Malaysia. EMA has appointed YTL PowerSeraya over Tuas Power and Sunseap Group for a two-year trial.

John Ng, CEO of YTL PowerSeraya, hopes this trial can be the start of a deeper partnership. “We are cautiously hopeful and looking forward to the possible import of low carbon energy to Singapore in the longer term.”

PowerSeraya was spun off from Singapore Power in 2001 to become a Temasek Holdings-linked company. In March 2009, Temasek divested from the PowerSeraya Group, and it became a subsidiary of YTL Power International Berhad, itself a subsidiary of Malaysian infrastructure giant YTL Corp.

YTL PowerSeraya is Singapore’s second-largest power producer. It also runs electricity retailer Geneco.

According to Ng, YTL PowerSeraya’s power plants run on natural gas, producing about half the emissions of oil. “Currently, 99% of our power generation comes from natural gas, the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel.”

The company has started moving into the renewable energy space, says Ng, by installing solar panels at its Jurong Island plant. “YTL PowerSeraya has a commitment to decarbonise our power plant operations [and] reduce 60% of carbon emissions from 2010 levels by 2030.”

The second 100MW trial involves solar-generated electricity from Pulau Bulan, Indonesia. There, EMA is working on a pilot with a consortium led by power generation company PacificLight Power (PLP).

Electricity will be supplied via a new interconnector that directly connects a solar farm in Pulau Bulan to PLP’s power station in Singapore. The pilot will be commissioned by around 2024.

The third trial is even more ambitious, employing existing interconnections across four Asean countries.

As part of the Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project (LTMS-PIP), Electricite Du Laos (EDL) will export and Keppel Infrastructure will import up to 100MW of renewable hydropower from Laos to Singapore via Thailand and Malaysia sometime this year.

“Keppel is privileged to work with EDL and the relevant energy authorities involved on the regionally significant LTMS-PIP to trial the importation of 100MW of renewable hydroelectricity into Singapore,” says Cindy Lim, CEO of Keppel Infrastructure.

Lim adds: “LTMS-PIP is an exciting development for Asean power interconnectivity and aims to accelerate the development of renewable energy projects whilst improving energy resilience for the region. This is also a starting point for Keppel to explore larger-scale electricity importation opportunities from the region and contribute to Singapore’s aspiration of decarbonising its power sector.”

The next stage

Sembcorp and Sunseap are also expected to throw their hats in the ring for the two RFPs.

On Oct 25, 2021, Sembcorp, along with Batam’s utility company PLN Batam and Indonesian renewable energy developer Trisurya Mitra Bersama, announced an exclusive agreement to develop a 1 gigawatt-peak (GWp) solar and energy storage project in Indonesia’s Batam, Bintan and Karimun region.

The following day, Sunseap Group signed a memorandum of understanding with Indonesian partners to develop 7GWp solar power systems around the Riau Islands, including a previously announced 2.2GWp floating solar PV in Duriangkang, Batam.

The proposed solar power system is one of the largest cross-border interconnect clean energy projects in Southeast Asia. The consortium aims to be one of the parties to help fulfil 20%–25% of the 4GW of low-carbon electricity imports to Singapore.

Plans involving interconnections help lay the basis for the long-awaited Asean Power Grid, which will help facilitate cross-border electricity trading, say experts. However, Singapore must anticipate some pushback.

There are strong domestic coalitions who stand to lose if their countries ramp up their renewable energy capacity... Australia and Indonesia are the world’s top two coal exporters.

In a commentary for CNA, Quah Say Jye and Kevin Chen, researchers at the Asia Competitiveness Institute, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, warn that lobby groups may work to derail transition plans.

“There are strong domestic coalitions who stand to lose if their countries ramp up their renewable energy capacity,” wrote Quah and Chen last October. “Australia and Indonesia are the world’s top two coal exporters. The coal industries of both countries wield considerable political influence.”

The researchers also warn of energy nationalism, where exporting countries choose to prioritise their own climate goals.

Read the full cover story

See also: Surbana Jurong's master plan for climate change

See also: City Energy harbours hydrogen dreams to help homes decarbonise

In a surprise announcement that month, Malaysia’s Energy and Natural Resources Ministry said its government will allow only non-renewable energy exports to Singapore. Power sales to Singapore through self-developed transmission and interconnection facilities will also not be allowed.

The announcement came right before SIEW 2021, which began on Oct 25, 2021.

According to the revised Guide for Cross-Border Electricity Sales, “electricity sold by Malaysia to Singapore shall be generated from non-renewable energy sources”. “The transfer of electricity shall not exceed 100MW and be through the Existing Interconnection only. No dedicated interconnection is allowed for such purpose.”

This could dash YTL PowerSeraya’s hopes and stymie further collaboration in renewable energy between Malaysia and Singapore.

Future tech

Still, Singapore is well-placed for the transition to renewable electricity imports, says Sun Cable’s Thompson. “It could repurpose its existing gas generation infrastructure to serve as a backup in case of interruptions to renewable electricity imports and help to transition quickly to zero-carbon electricity.”

Thompson believes the current 4GW figure for imported electricity should be “increased significantly”. “We believe [this will] satisfy the demand we see for Singapore and ensure that Singapore does not miss out on foreign direct investments, which are increasingly linked to the availability of zero-carbon electricity.”

Following SIEW 2021, EMA announced plans to explore harnessing geothermal energy in northern and eastern Singapore. “With support from the National Research Foundation, EMA is working closely with Nanyang Technological University (NTU) and various ministries and agencies, including MTI and the National Climate Change Secretariat, to carry out exploratory studies on our geothermal potential.”

EMA aims to publish preliminary findings by the end of the year, but local urban consultancy Surbana Jurong has already put geothermal energy into practice in the US.

The technology and engineering part, we fully understand. But to be able to explore that, you need that wider adoption.

Surbana Jurong subsidiary Atelier Ten serves as an environmental consultant for Microsoft’s redeveloped campus in Redmond, Washington. Tunnelling some 167m into the ground, the wells will compose one of the largest “geoexchange” fields in the US to harness the earth’s thermal energy.

When air is colder than the ground in winter, pumps circulate fluid through looped pipes to transfer ground heat into buildings. When air is warmer than the ground in summer, the process reverses. The system is expected to more than halve energy consumption.

The challenge in implementing geothermal energy in Singapore lies not in technology but cost efficiency, says Surbana Jurong Group CEO Wong Heang Fine. “The technology and engineering part, we fully understand. But to be able to explore that, you need that wider adoption. In the case of Microsoft, it is a big campus. So, the economics justify the adoption.”

“In Singapore, we will need to garner industrial support for the adoption of new technology,” Wong tells The Edge Singapore. “We are working with our partners in Japan, China and the region to see how we can roll out this technology to wider adoption.”

Accenture’s Carthy underscores the high cost of geothermal energy. “As a reference point, Indonesia’s current active geothermal generation capacity is only about 2.5% of its total installed power generation capacity — and they have been developing geothermal generation for a while now. Based on the example of Indonesia, the estimated cost of geothermal power is around $140/MWh, which is higher than the cost of gas-fired power generation in Singapore — making its adoption challenging.”

Hydrogen is perhaps a more feasible option for now. City Energy CEO Perry Ong believes the company’s existing piped town gas infrastructure, which delivers a mix of hydrogen and methane, can help Singapore make the switch seamlessly.

“Today, City Energy is probably the largest carrier of hydrogen molecules, because town gas itself is 50% hydrogen. So, we are already delivering hydrogen on a daily basis to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses,” says Ong to The Edge Singapore.

Costs are still high, but Ong believes they will moderate as the technology matures. “Rather than getting our hydrogen from natural gas, we are exploring the possibility of using green hydrogen as a replacement in town gas.”

Unfinished business

As Singapore sets out to right its carbon wrongs, legacy issues remain. Take the $2 billion Tembusu Multi-Utilities Complex on Jurong Island, which began burning coal in August 2012.

Along with burning low-sulphur coal, palm kernel shells and wood chips, the plant also consumes natural gas or diesel to supply electricity to the island.

I was shocked when our regulators allowed this plant to be built because coal is the dirtiest of the three fossil fuels.

Environmental groups had protested the burning of coal but a Straits Times report quoted then-CEO Lim Kong Puay saying coal diversifies the plant’s fuel mix for energy security, with prices less volatile than that of oil.

In a Facebook post, Singapore’s ambassador-at-large Professor Tommy Koh recounted his surprise that the plant had cleared all regulatory hurdles. “I was shocked when our regulators allowed this plant to be built because coal is the dirtiest of the three fossil fuels,” says Koh.

Koh also questioned the plant’s congruence with the world’s green plans. “The plant on Jurong Island is owned by Tuas Power, which is a subsidiary of a Chinese company called Huaneng Power International. President Xi has announced that China will stop building coal-fired power plants abroad.”

That $2 billion decision has soured in less than a decade. At last year’s COP26, Singapore announced it will phase out unabated coal from its electricity mix by 2050.

The nuclear option?

Could Singapore one day rely on nuclear power, much like France?

Singapore should keep a close watch on nuclear energy developments, says Dr Tan Wu Meng, Member of Parliament for Jurong GRC. “For nuclear fission, we should continue assessing the safety of small modular reactors, and whether a future generation of small modular reactors can be safely deployed in the Singapore context.”

In a way, Singapore has already placed some bets on nuclear energy as a possible alternative power source. Last year, Temasek reportedly invested in two nuclear fusion firms: Commonwealth Fusion Systems and General Fusion.

You can say it is our ‘get out of jail’ card for Singapore’s energy security.

Temasek does not expect immediate returns from such investments, as the path to full commercialisation will take some time. Rather, these are part of the number of bets Singapore’s state investment agency is making on cutting-edge technologies ranging from quantum computing to artificial intelligence, with a longer horizon.

“If they pan out, based on our best judgement, it will change the future paradigm. You can say it is our ‘get out of jail’ card for Singapore’s energy security,” explains Russell Tham, Temasek’s joint head of its enterprise development group (Singapore) and head of strategic development.

“If the technology is mature enough and progressive, it will allow Singapore more energy security options for sure. But is it a good investment? For sure, I think. But you got to take a long-term view of about 10 to 15 years because Temasek is a patient investor,” says Tham in an interview with The Edge Singapore.

But public reception to nuclear power in Singapore is still generally low. An NTU study released last November found that only one in five (22%) respondents in Singapore were in favour of nuclear energy development.

The generally negative sentiment towards nuclear energy in the region could be a result of a lingering effect of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown.

Professor Shirley Ho of the Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information, who led the study, says: “The generally negative sentiment towards nuclear energy in the region could be a result of a lingering effect of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown, given the severity of the incident and the close geographical proximity of Japan to Southeast Asia.”

Having a nuclear power plant in this region, where none exists now, is thus a major policy decision, and public opinion cannot be ignored.

For controversial technologies like nuclear energy, trust is integral to science communication, adds Ho. “Simply enhancing scientific knowledge among the public may not affect their support for nuclear energy. Rather, trust in various entities and risk perceptions are cues that people usually use to interpret scientific information and make judgements.

Among five Asean countries surveyed, the highest level of public support for nuclear energy development came from respondents in Indonesia (39%), followed by Singapore (22%), Vietnam (21%), Malaysia (20%) and Thailand (3%).

Indonesia plans to build a nuclear power plant after 2025 to meet national energy demand, said Indonesia’s director-general of electricity Rida Mulyana to CNBC in April 2021.

Ho says: “Indonesia appears to be the one with the most concrete plan for nuclear energy development among the five Southeast Asian countries. Hence, it is expected that Indonesians would have higher public support for nuclear energy compared to the other four countries.”

She adds: “Having a nuclear power plant in this region, where none exists now, is thus a major policy decision, and public opinion cannot be ignored. As of now, the data from our study suggests that the public across the five countries are collectively unsupportive of having a nuclear power plant in their own country. This is a key point for consideration for policymakers of the five Southeast Asian countries if they are considering including nuclear energy as part of their energy plan going forward.”

Photos: Sun Cable, Wood Mackenzie, YTL PowerSeraya, Albert Chua/The Edge Singapore