“The policies of peaceful reunification and One Country, Two Systems are the best way to realise reunification across the Taiwan Strait; this best serves the interests of Chinese people on both sides of the Strait and the entire Chinese nation,” declared Xi in his report to the 20th Party Congress. He announced that his administration would strive for peaceful reunification with “the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort” despite not renouncing the use of force. He took care to clarify that forceful measures would be aimed solely at “interference by outside forces” and “separatists” and not at “our Taiwan compatriots”.
With war risk in the Taiwan Strait at an all-time high, the strip of water separating China and the self-governing island of Taiwan has been dubbed by The Economist as “the most dangerous place on earth”. Some in Washington no longer see armed conflict as a distant possibility. President Xi has reportedly called on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to develop the capability to take Taiwan by 2027. More disturbing, Admiral Mike Gilday, US chief of naval operations, says that such an action could take place as early as 2023.
Other analysts, however, are more sceptical. “We can’t rule out anything but stating that there is a 2022 or 2023 window is sheer speculation. I think it’s irresponsible,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund in a Financial Times article. Derek Grossman, senior defence analyst at the Rand Corporation, says that Xi prefers “peaceful reunification” and has sought to reduce social media speculation that China was gearing the country up for reunification through military force.
