Oil advanced above US$100 a barrel as Russia cast doubts on the progress of current peace talks with Ukraine and investors weigh the absence of Russian barrels in a tight market.
Futures in New York were up around 7%. A Kremlin spokesman said a report of major progress in talks over Ukraine was “wrong,” but that discussions will continue. The war has severely disrupted Russian oil flows, and the International Energy Agency predicted output from the key OPEC+ member will decline by about a quarter in April. Three cargoes were dropped from Russia’s planned March loadings.
Global benchmark Brent is trading near US$105 a barrel and has swung by more than $5 intraday for 16 consecutive sessions -- the longest such run ever -- as the oil market has been gripped by huge gyrations.
“To say that oil prices have been volatile recently would be an understatement,” Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote in a note, boosting their forecast for third-quarter Brent prices by $20 to $120 a barrel. “It will likely become progressively more difficult for Russia to maintain its seaborne exports in the coming months.”
Investors are also monitoring a virus resurgence in China. Traffic congestion levels in partially locked-down Shanghai are more than a third lower than a year ago and there are also restrictions on movement in the manufacturing hub of Shenzhen and in Jilin province.
Rapid developments in the war in Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions on Russia are driving enormous fluctuations in the market, and holdings in oil contracts have slumped due to the volatility. Libya said Wednesday that OPEC should ramp up supply faster to ease the energy crisis, while U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed optimism that Saudi Arabia may raise output, but he received no guarantees from the kingdom’s crown prince.
Oil markets have experienced huge swings this month, with Brent crude surging to nearly US$140 a barrel only to tumble back to slightly above US$100. The market is also in the midst of a liquidity crunch, leaving prices vulnerable to big swings. The extent of the liquidation shows up in open interest figures. Holdings for WTI fell to the lowest since 2016, while those for Brent were the lowest since 2015.
