SINGAPORE (Feb 3): Contrary to popular belief, a group of Chinese scientists has warned that the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which originated in Wuhan in central China could have a comparable fatality rate to the Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003.
According to latest data from Chinese authorities, the Wuhan coronavirus has killed more than 360 and spread to more than 17,000 people in mainland China as of Feb 2. Already, this has surpassed the country’s official count of SARS patients and fatalities in 2003.
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Using daily reported data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), the researchers conducted a modelling study to predict the future outbreak profile of the Wuhan coronavirus.
Noting that2019-nCoV is still at its “early growth stage”, they estimate that the coronavirus has an effective reproduction rate of 4.08. This indicates that an infected patient would infect more than four susceptible people during the outbreak.
The model also estimates that the fatality rate for 2019-nCoV will be 6.50%. In comparison, the researchers note that the fatality rate for SARS in 2003 was 7.66% for Beijing and 3.61% for Guangzhou.
Notably, the researchers’ estimated fatality rate for the Wuhan coronavirus is significantly higher than the commonly quoted 2% death rate, which is derived by expressing the total number of deaths as a percentage of the total number of confirmed cases.
According to the model study, this commonly cited fatality rate is erroneous, as it fails to account for the lag between a patient being diagnosed and dying.
For example, there were around 4,600 confirmed cases in China five days ago on Jan 28. Assuming a five day latency, and based on the number of deaths on Feb 2, the fatality rate is around 7.8%.
The study was led by Dr. Cao Zhidong, a researcher in the State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Automation. Cao’s primary research interests are infectious disease informatics, spatio-temporal data processing, and social computing.
Other researchers involved in the study include Zhang Qingpeng, Lu Xin, Dirk Pfeiffer, Jia Zhongwei, Song Hongbing, and Daniel Zeng Dajun. They are affiliated with notably institutions such as the City University of Hong Kong, Peking University, and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing.
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“The authors portray the virus as more dangerous than most other sources do,” notes Paul De Vierno, a strategist in UOB Kay Hian's private wealth management team. “There are plenty of reasons to believe the pathogen is not as infectious and deadly as this paper suggests. However, this a serious analysis by serious people.”
De Vierno points out that there have been some comments by global experts that conclusions made so early in an epidemic are “rarely correct”.
On their part, the Chinese researchers acknowledge that epidemiological investigations of the Wuhan coronavirus are “just beginning”.
“Data-driven studies are critically needed to develop insights into this ongoing outbreak and evaluate the effectiveness of public health strategies, such as the currently implemented lockdown of Wuhan,” they say.
Interestingly, the model that the researchers developed “provide a better fit” for the case counts when set to an earlier start date for the start of the outbreak.
“This indicates that human-to-human transmission may have started earlier than what the current prevailing viewpoint suggests,” the researchers say.
“Obviously, further molecular and epidemiological studies are needed to draw any conclusions in this regard,” they add.
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For now, the Chinese research study will do little to calm the nerves of jittery markets across China and Asia.
Closed since Jan 23 for the Lunar New Year break, Chinese stocks plunged on Monday as trading resumed, with more than 2,600 stocks falling by the daily 10% limit.
The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the performance of the top 300 shares traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, dropped as much as 9.1% as onshore financial markets reopened for the first time since the break.
In Singapore, the benchmark Straits Times Index closed 1.19% down at 3,116.31 on Monday. The STI has dropped 163.78 points, or 4.99%, since Jan 20.
Further fallout from the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus is expected in Singapore, after the government on Jan 31 banned entry to all Chinese visitors and foreigners with a recent history of travel to China.
The move to suspend visas to mainland Chinese passport holders effectively shuts out the island’s largest group of visitors.
The US, India, Australia, Indonesia, Israel, Russia, New Zealand and the Philippines have also imposed restrictions on visitors from China.
