(May 15): Every few trading sessions, the yen jolts higher against the dollar, and then it suddenly drops.
That has become a recurring feature of yen trading in recent weeks, sparking debate among investors and strategists over whether Japanese authorities are trying to stem further weakness in the yen through smaller operations.
On Thursday, the yen jumped as much as 0.5% against the dollar in just two minutes during New York trading before quickly surrendering those gains. A similar move happened on Tuesday, when it abruptly rose by roughly the same amount. On May 8, the yen also briefly climbed 0.2% before reversing course.
No one can say for certain what’s behind it, but traders are taking note because the moves may signal Tokyo’s unease over the yen’s weakness. Even the perception that authorities could intervene makes betting against the currency riskier.
“My interpretation of the renewed activity is that the Ministry of Finance [MOF] is uncomfortable with dollar-yen above 160 and wants to discourage another test of that level,” said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd in Singapore. “These proactive nudges and warning shots — even before 160 is reached — point in this direction.”
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The momentary surges, appearing at different points from Tokyo through New York trading, come after a stretch of reported intervention in currency markets. While Japanese authorities have declined to comment on whether they stepped in, people familiar with the matter said intervention occurred on April 30, and analysis of the central bank’s accounts indicates Japan may have spent as much as around ¥10 trillion supporting the yen through the Golden Week holiday.
“There’s caution over intervention, so a slight move can spook people,” said Marito Ueda, managing director at SBI FX Trade.
There’s no definitive evidence authorities are behind the latest moves. Unlike past interventions, there have been no fresh public warnings from officials, widespread trader reports of rate checks or clear signals in BOJ data.
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But Japan has a history of pairing large currency interventions with smaller follow-up operations. In late 2022, a ¥729.6 billion yen-buying operation followed a much bigger ¥5.62 trillion intervention aimed at slowing yen weakness.
Still, with the currency continuing to trend weaker, some investors are questioning what was actually achieved. The yen traded at 158.58 per dollar on Friday, weakening from a recent high of 155.04 on May 6.
“It’s likely the MOF going ‘we’re still here’,” said Nick Twidale, an analyst at ATFX Global Markets who has traded yen assets for more than a quarter century, referring to the recent blips. “They’re not smashing it again and again with intervention because it doesn’t work.”
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc have assessed how much capacity Japan has to counter yen weakness. They estimate authorities could conduct intervention on a scale seen late April around 30 more times, though they expect officials to conserve reserves and act selectively.
Whether the latest moves were driven by intervention, rate checks or simply jittery trading, investors are on edge, according to Ayako Sera, senior market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. Dollar-yen, she noted, is already back around 158.
“If last night’s move was intervention too, then I’m not really sure what the point of it was,” Sera said. “It feels like the finance ministry is just buying time.”
Uploaded by Felyx Teoh
