“With US tariffs increasing to 64% on goods imports from China, we estimated that such a trade war would drag China's GDP growth by 1.5-2.5 percentage points (pp),” Barclays says.
The French title of a Barclays report needs no English translation. Of course, the report makes sober reading for those of us in Singapore and everywhere else in the world. All countries are affected by the US administered tariffs including Singapore, despite the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement. Even the Heard and Macdonald Islands, inhabited mainly by penguins have a 10% tariff imposed. In that respect, Singapore with its 2025 GDP estimated at US$561.73 billion (nominal) and its GDP per capita of US$93,956 according to IMF data, may have gotten off more lightly than other wealthy economies.
"The new tariffs imply significant downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts” Barclays says. “We believe they are likely to be more net-deflationary rather than inflationary. The more open economies of Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, Korea and Singapore stand out in terms of economic vulnerability.”
