(June 16): The outlook for electric vehicle (EV) demand has been cut for the second year in a row after the US government pulled back policies supporting EV adoption, according to BloombergNEF.
EVs are now expected to account for 17% of US passenger vehicle sales in 2030, according to BloombergNEF’s latest outlook for battery-powered vehicles. That is down from an estimated 27% in last year’s forecast and far below 2024’s projection of 48%.
Softer US demand will weigh on global adoption, with sales of electric passenger vehicles reaching 35.6 million by 2030, BloombergNEF said, about 3.4 million fewer than last year’s forecast.
The outlook reflects the fallout from the Trump administration and Republican lawmakers all but eliminating US government support for EV adoption by consumers. Under Trump, policymakers have moved to significantly weaken fuel-efficiency standards, revoke California’s EV sales mandate and eliminated a US$7,500 ($9,612) federal tax credit for EVs.
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Tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and rising global trade barriers also hurt automakers’ ability to sell EVs competitively in the US, said Andrew Grant, the head of intelligent mobility at BloombergNEF and a co-author of the report.
“We did go in with kind of an expectation that the US might not be living up to the type of outlook that we have had in previous years,” Grant said.
Automakers have responded by dramatically curtailing ambitions EV plans, with production of at least 27 existing and future models being reduced, cancelled or delayed in the last year, according to BloombergNEF. Automakers such as Stellantis NV, Ford Motor Co, General Motors Co and Honda Motor Co have recently incurred about US$64 billion in EV-related losses, the report said.
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And although China continues to dominate, with the country accounting for around 62% of EVs sold globally this year, growth is also expected to slow largely due to changes in subsidy programmes. EV sales are projected to increase 10% in China this year, less than the 16% gain seen in 2025 and the 39% jump in 2024, according to the report.
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