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What happens when the guns fall silent?

Ng Qi Siang
Ng Qi Siang • 5 min read
What happens when the guns fall silent?
A destroyed residential building in Chernihiv, Ukraine which suffered massive shelling at the start of Russia’s invasion. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has declared that US$1 trillion will be needed to rebuild the country / Photo: Bloomberg
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While the consensus is that the War in Ukraine is unlikely to end any time soon, Putin’s controversial call for negotiations raises the question of what a reasonable settlement will look like. The end of conflict would not see a return to the status quo: Ukraine’s economy has been left destitute by the ravages of war, while a battered and discredited Russia would find itself isolated from the international economic system.

ESSEC Business School professor Cedomir Nestorovic sees negotiations taking months to conclude, even if both parties find it within themselves to come to the negotiating table. One critical question is how Ukraine will be rebuilt and who will finance such efforts. He also cites the question of double nationality, with many people likely wishing to be both Russian and Ukrainian simultaneously for either familial or possibly ideological reasons.

Kyiv is eager for Moscow to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction as reparations for its aggression. Markiyan Kliuchkovskiy, a member of a Ukrainian government working group on reparations, told Radio Free Europe that Ukraine would do all in its power to obtain the funds in collaboration with “the civilised world”. Zelensky has declared that US$1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) will be needed to rebuild Ukraine. The seizure of Russian assets to finance these costs has been mooted by the Congressional Study Group on Foreign Relations and National Security.

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