BNP Paribas Securities says the global equity markets may continue to face volatility over the next six to eight weeks. How the markets perform is mostly dependent on the outcome of the upcoming US presidential elections, the possible escalation of geopolitical tensions, the worsening of Covid-19 infections, and fluctuating news flow on the potential Covid-19 vaccines, says analyst Manishi Raychaudhuri.
“Within Asia, different countries are marching to different tunes in terms of their domestic economic trajectories, their economic policy initiatives and their strategies in combating the pandemic,” adds Raychaudhuri in a strategy report dated September 20.
“Sector-wise earnings estimates – a key driver of share prices, in our opinion – are consequently shaping up differently in different Asian markets,” he adds.
However, Raychaudhuri has identified several indicators that are “likely near-term drivers”, such as the broadening of an earnings revival to cyclicals. The trend, says Raychaudhuri, is more visible in North Asia, but is selectively catching up in Asean and India.
The winners and losers that emerge from the ongoing US-China tensions, as well as the continued imposition of restrictions on Chinese tech by the US administration in the lead-up to the US presidential elections, could “dominate the investment narrative”, adds Raychaudhuri.
The analyst also predicts that global central banks are likely to maintain a benign monetary policy stance for the foreseeable time horizon. The moderation of the USD is also likely to continue, which will cause “positive” implications for commodity prices and Asian equities.
The growth of China’s economy – recently driven entirely by the supply side – is now showing signs of a more broad-based recovery. The country recently showed a recovery in its retail sales figures in August.
“While the new five-year economic plan for 2021-25 [will be revealed] in October, fiscal stimulus seems set to continue. Demand recovery – particularly in property, passenger cars and home appliances – and infrastructure investment appear to be the key pillars of continued growth through 4Q and beyond,” says Raychaudhuri.
After experiencing the sharpest y-o-y 2Q20 GDP decline among prominent economies, India is exhibiting silver linings, specially in rural demand recovery.
The Asean region is exhibiting a picture of divergence among constituents. While Thailand has been successful in controlling the spread of Covid-19 infections, the country’s economy has suffered from the complete closure of overseas tourism. Indonesia is seeing a second lockdown following the renewed surge in daily infections since August, which may cause an incrementally negative impact on investments and consumption.
In Singapore, the brokerage has rated the city-state “neutral” in the model portfolio sector and country tilts along with Hong Kong, Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia. In contrast, China and India received “overweight” ratings.
