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World economy can avoid 1970s-style stagflation, but not without some getting hurt

Shawn Donnan, Rich Miller, Jana Randow and Philip Aldrick for Bloomberg
Shawn Donnan, Rich Miller, Jana Randow and Philip Aldrick for Bloomberg • 6 min read
World economy can avoid 1970s-style stagflation, but not without some getting hurt
In both the 1970s and today, the shocks hit economies that already had inflation problems.
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The world economy has a decent shot at escaping a full re-run of 1970s-style stagflation – and that’s about as far as the good news goes.

A historic surge in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coming on top of already-high pandemic inflation, has gotten investors and economists searching for parallels with the energy shocks of four decades ago and the prolonged slowdowns that followed.

They’re right to worry, says Maurice Obstfeld, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

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