Granted, the data set is small. Japan’s political system tends not to lend itself to long terms in office, with the average incumbency for post-occupation leaders just over two years. Before Shinzo Abe, whose record term in office ended Wednesday, only four premiers among the 30 leaders had lasted about five years or more.
A new leader taking over from a long-term incumbent can often make investors skittish. Yet as Yoshihide Suga settles in as prime minister of Japan, market participants can take solace in one fact – no modern Japanese leader taking over from a long-serving premier has seen stocks fall on their watch.
Every successor to a Japanese leader who has been in office for around five years or more has lasted at least a year in office, and local stocks have risen during each of those terms, according to data compiled by Mizuho Securities.
