(April 11): US Senator Elizabeth Warren is asking the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate “unusual trading patterns” in oil futures that took place immediately preceding Trump administration announcements of a potential ceasefire in the Iran war.
“This pattern raises serious questions about whether there has been recurring misappropriation of material non-public government information and about the extent to which individuals inside or outside the government have acted on such information,” Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate’s banking committee wrote.
The letter, sent on Thursday to the chairman of the CFTC, was also signed by fellow Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse. Warren and Whitehouse are in the Senate minority and, as such, can’t issue subpoenas or force any legislative or other action.
The senators said oil futures trading surged dramatically on the morning of March 23, minutes before US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social announcing talks with Iran to potentially de-escalate the war, despite no public news preceding the announcement. Unidentified traders made a US$500 million ($636.9 million) oil futures bet minutes before the post sent crude prices plunging, the senators said.
On March 24, the White House Management Officer sent an internal staff-wide email that warned employees against using confidential information to place trades on financial markets and fast-growing event betting platforms, according to a White House official who asked not to be identified discussing a confidential matter.
“President Trump has been completely transparent with the American public about the temporary, short-term disruptions to the energy markets and provided numerous updates on the estimated timeline and military progress made during Operation Epic Fury,” a White House spokesperson said on Friday. “President Trump is focused on doing the right thing — which is eliminating the Iranian terrorist regime’s threat to the American people and our allies.”
See also: Oil prices to stay high for two years, Thai finance chief says
A similar situation occurred on April 7, when in the hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, traders placed an approximately US$950 million bet on lower oil prices. Crude plunged roughly 15% following the declaration.
Other suspicious trades occurred in the minutes before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff pause announcement in April 2025, as well as on prediction market Polymarket, where bets were laid on the ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and strikes on Iran, the senators wrote in the letter.
Uploaded by Tham Yek Lee
