Lee used a surplus revalued net asset value (RNAV) calculation that also took into account a potential redevelopment of its West Orchard Road assets (Forum, voco, Four Seasons and HPL House). Based on this, HPL’s RNAV was estimated to be $8.20. Fair value was calculated at a 35% discount to RNAV, which worked out to $5.32.
In 2014, Eli Lee, then an analyst at OCBC Investment Research, wrote a report that argued specific developments such as new MRT stations, URA’s Master Plan for 2014 and revised building codes could transform what he named as “West Orchard Road”.
By far, Hotel Properties (HPL) owns the largest segment of West Orchard Road. The potential redevelopment of voco Orchard Singapore (formerly Hilton Hotel), Four Seasons Hotel and the Forum, which are all owned by HPL and form a contiguous land site, is not a new story. The Edge Singapore had written about it as far back as 2006. Forum and voco Orchard Singapore occupy some 180m of frontage on Orchard Road.
