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Divining the direction of interest rates

Goola Warden
Goola Warden • 12 min read
Divining the direction of interest rates
Jan minutes of FOMC says committee will be guided by data before lowering rates further. Photo: Bloomberg
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Interest rates affect every aspect of public and private markets; in particular, risk-free rates affect the valuation of bonds, equities and REITs. Where are rates heading and what should investors do?

The outlook for interest rates has divided the investment community, which is reflected in a recent poll of our readers. Out of about 1,000 readers who responded, 41% forecast rates to fall this year, 33% reckon they will remain at current rates, 19% expect interest rates to rise and 7% said they do not know.

On the other hand, almost all REIT managers — except for a couple — have opted to remain conservative, keeping a high portion of their debt on fixed rates.  

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