Miller says these are “rules of origin as a topic, about how much transformation in a good you need before it is considered a Vietnamese good rather than a Chinese good rerouted to Vietnam”.
The second Trump administration will be a double-edged sword for Southeast Asia, which has largely benefitted from being a China+1 hedge so far. However, while more foreign investments will be actualised, this might come with strings attached, says Chris Miller, economic historian and author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology.
Miller, whose best-selling book recounts the decades-long battle to control semiconductors, explains that a new school of thought has emerged years after US President Donald Trump’s first-term tariffs. Chinese companies that opened factories in Asean, South America or elsewhere may soon face tightened rules to enforce trade diversion between those countries.
