Singapore’s trade and non-oil domestic export (Nodx) for 2023 is seen to slow, following a strong recovery from the pandemic recorded in the preceding 2021, says Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG).
In 2022, Nodx increased by 3% y-o-y, a deceleration from 12.1% seen in 2021, with growth driven by both electronics and non-electronic products.
Year-on-year, Nodx dropped by 14% in 4Q 2022, sharp swing from the previous quarter’s 7.1% growth.
Total merchandise trade grew 17.7% in 2022, following an increase of 19.7% in 2021.
The slowdown flagged for this year has already been widely observed since the middle of last year, with sectors such as semiconductors slowing sharply because of lower end demand.
EnterpriseSG is keeping both its total merchandise trade and Nodx growth projections for 2023 at “ -2% to 0%”.
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According to the International Monetary Fund, global economy will grow by 2.9% this year, down from 3.4% last year, partly because of central banks forging ahead with raising rates to fight inflation and thereby driving up costs. The ongoing war in Ukraine is not helping either.
Singapore’s key trade partners – US, Eurozone, Asean-5 – are all expected to grow at a slower pace this year. China and Japan are exceptions, with the former just emerging from pandemic lockdowns most recently, says EnterpriseSG.
Separately, the World Trade Organisation has projected that global merchandise trade will be subdued in 2023, with growth slowing to 1.0% from 2022’s estimated 3.5%.
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According to EnterpriseSG, lower expected oil prices in 2023 could weigh on Singapore’ oil trade in nominal terms, and in turn total trade.
“Moderating global demand for semiconductors could also weigh on electronics trade and exports performance in 2023, impacting total trade and NODX,” says EnterpriseSG.
